Patek Philippe

nothing but time
350

• Show profile
• Show other posts

Passion and Pricing

I am a passionate Patek collector, but I am a pragmatic soul.  I recognize as the manufacturer does that watches are ultimately "novelties" ..  so described on the invitations I receive to events where new models are unveiled.  These novelties are not cheap. Collecting many (or even several) pieces at this level requires a fortitude, conviction and passion, coupled with great disposable wealth.  While the truly wealthy may restrict their collecting activities to "just Grand Complications", or "only Minute Repeaters", there is a trickle down where less passionate (and wealthy) individuals collect chronos or calatravas .. Among us all, there are subcultures of collectors who are traders.  Some trade for the sport of it, happy to make a few dollars, not necessarily for the profit, but for the game.  Still others augment their annual income by 20% or 50% by actively trading watches - a passion that bears profit.

We all have our views on the worldwide economy, markets, demographic and political changes upon us.  I am of the view that we are in the beginning quarter (first 3  of 10 years) of a cyclical bear market which will ratchet equity markets (including China's) significantly lower. We will see a further erosion of real estate prices, weakening of financial institutions, tightening of lending. In a perversion of logic, the US dollar will strengthen against other currencies despite great inflation.  I believe that the prices of watches and other novelties will drop dramatically in the coming years, forced by a "need for cash" and liquidation by those seeking to raise cash. I think Patek (and other manufacturers) will see the secondary market for their novelties collapse to historical norms, when pieces on the secondary market and at auction houses sold at a discount to new pieces. People will not make money trading watches in the same way that they have for the last 10 years.

I can envision a noticeable silence in forums such as this one, where casual trader-collectors vanish from our ranks and a noticeable change occurs in the tenor and volume of posts. I'm curious whether others here share my view and if so, whether it would make sense to liquidate a collection at one of the auctions in the near term, so that it (and many others) may purchased back at lower prices in a few years time.

I understand that discussions relating to watch valuations make some of our moderators uneasy, but I am trying to have an intelligent,  higher level discussion regarding the degree of real-passion in this space and how a global financial sea-change will ultimately impact our collection habits; our passion and the habits of new collectors.  While not openly discussed, the entire watch industry has deftly shaped itself to cater to the trading dynamic which runs just below the surface. This industry has convinced the passionate among us that a secret handshake is needed to acquire the bespoke models we all covet. I am convinced that some of this ponzi-like dynamic is now beginning to unwind and am curious what that will do to the passion of those among us.

We are all mature adults and I would be grateful to our forum moderators if they would keep this thread open.  I would also implore those responding to keep the discussion and opinions regarding the broader pricing and passion at a high level and not to degenerate into price only, so that this important discussion may stay open.

Site Info.