Interesting tidbits from Thierry Stern interview

Jul 08, 2010,01:15 AM
 

Some interesting tid-bits and macro observations by Mr. Stern in an interview that was published by Bloomberg today.  Story reprinted below.  Can't find link to video interview but perhaps this is published later today:  

What does he mean by "when he's not wearing his Patek"?! ;-)

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Patek Philippe’s Stern Says High Gold Prices Are ‘Big Threat’

By Tom Mulier and Olivia Sterns

July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Patek Philippe SA Chairman Thierry Stern said the Swiss watchmaker has bought gold futures as a defense against high gold prices that are threatening the luxury goods industry.

"My major problem is, where is gold going?" Stern, who turns 40 tomorrow, said in an interview recorded by Bloomberg Television in London. "I have no idea. I see it every time going up, up, up. It’s a big threat."

Gold futures have gained almost 30 percent in New York the past year and set a record $1,266.50 an ounce on June 21. About 80 percent of Patek Philippe watches are made of precious metals such as gold and platinum, Rene Weber, an analyst at Bank Vontobel, has estimated. Stern, who succeeded his father last year, didn’t give further details of the hedging strategy.

Swatch Group AG Chief Executive Nick Hayek Jr. said in March that gold prices posed difficulties for the world’s largest watchmaker, which uses 10 tons of the metal a year.

Exports of gold watches from Switzerland rose 3.9 percent in May, a third of the rate of total shipments, the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry said.

Patek Philippe makes about 42,000 watches a year, ranging in price from about 10,000 Swiss francs ($9,500) to more than 1 million francs. It has cleared several thousand watches it held in inventory last year, and now can’t make some models fast enough, Stern said.

China Caution

The Geneva-based company is the fourth-largest watchmaker, according to Luca Solca, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein. The company’s 2008 sales were estimated at 1.2 billion francs by Bank Vontobel’s Weber.

"Asia is booming today," Stern said, adding that demand from Europe and the U.S. is also fueling sales growth.

Stern said he is cautious about China, which, together with Hong Kong, has surpassed the U.S. as the biggest market for Swiss watches.

"This is a new market and you should always be careful with new markets," he said. "Many brands didn’t have thechoice: they had a lot of stock they didn’t know where to sell it, they saw especially China as a new market." 

As a result, these companies will "lose control on the merchandise and they will lose control really on the market," he said. "We’ll see it mainly coming maybe in 2011. That’s a big danger for those brands."

Family Control

Stern, who said he uses his Apple Inc. iPhone to tell the time if he’s not wearing a Patek Philippe, said he hopes the company will remain family-owned. His children are aged seven and nine.

"As a father I would be very thrilled and very happy,"

if they eventually take over management of the company, "but if I have to choose between Patek Philippe and their happiness, guess which choice I will take," Stern said.

The company’s roots date back to 1839, when two Polish immigrants, Antoine Norbert de Patek and Francois Czapek, formed Patek Czapek & Cie. The company was renamed Patek Philippe & Cie. when Adrien Philippe, a French watchmaker, joined in 1851 after Czapek’s departure. Charles and Jean Stern bought the watchmaker in 1932.

The record price of a watch sold in any auction was $11 million for a 1933 Patek Philippe pocket watch made for Henry Graves Jr. The American banker had asked Patek Philippe to make the most complicated watch in the world to win a contest he had with rival collector James Ward Packard. Sotheby’s sold the watch in a 1999 auction.

 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-07/patek-philippe-chairman-says-gold-price-is-big-threat-to-luxury-industry.html

 

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Comments: view entire thread

 

Hmmm, that is somewhat surprising...

 
 By: patrick_y : July 8th, 2010-10:11
That is indeed somewhat surprising. Thierry Stern not wearing a watch to tell the time.

Sorry but I don't get it

 
 By: Bruno.M1 : July 8th, 2010-11:30
When people buy a Patek the cost of the gold is just a little fraction of the watch. Even when speaking about the cheapest Patek you still have to pay more or less 13.000 euro for a simple Calatrava. How much gold does a calatrava use ? 60 grams ? It won'... 

That's obviously not the way the industry counts

 
 By: Dje : July 8th, 2010-11:51
Hi, Add to the gold content value of a watch and this added value is then multiplied by the standard factor. So if a production cost is let's say 3 000 (purely theoretical ) and then multiplied by 5 to arrive to a retail price of 15 000, then if you add 5... 

5-fold on the gold?

 
 By: Eric09 : July 8th, 2010-12:20
So the industry wants to make a 5-fold markup on the gold too? Then, they shouldn't be surprised if they loose the market touch ... Eric09

I understand your point

 
 By: Bruno.M1 : July 8th, 2010-12:21
but the price of gold is only one off the several things that make the price. And if not all the separate items rise with 30% it is imo unnecessary to raise the total cost by 30 %, I know they would want to but if they can't because otherwise the watch wo... 

Yes but...

 
 By: Dje : July 8th, 2010-12:57
Hi, Michelin costs are much more linked to raw materials than Mercedes. The more manufactured the product is, the lesser the influence of raw materials. Cheers Dje

Let's have some Stainlees Steel!

 
 By: rolexdoc : July 9th, 2010-08:06
I myself would love to own several referances in Stainless Steel. I am sure that I am not alone. I suspect Patek could add this metal in large numbers to many of their referances if gold became cost prohibitive. Maybe the profit margin could be maintained... 

I agree with your thoughts to a point,

 
 By: whit : July 10th, 2010-09:00
but this presents itself, to many manufacturers, as an opportunity (justification) to increase prices which most folks can understand. What happens when gold levels drift back to the $400-500/oz levels? Folks have a much more difficult time understanding ... 

Effect on Platinum

 
 By: briangovberg : July 12th, 2010-07:46
Almost as interesting is what this means for platinum. With gold trailing closer and closer to platinum, how will the watch companies be able to place such high retails on platinum pieces, specifically high complications, when the retails between their go... 

I don't think you will see much difference in the spread

 
 By: whit : July 12th, 2010-10:44
between platinum and gold even with gold prices and platinum prices so close. Years ago when platinum and gold were within dollars of each other, the spread was still very substantial, about $8-10,000. As I was told then, the reason was in machining and c...